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    基于双向时序差分记忆网络的批次过程质量预测方法

    Batch process quality prediction method based on bidirectional temporal difference memory network

    • 摘要: 针对批次生产过程中质量指标非平稳特性难以捕捉、长时依赖建模精度不足的问题,本研究提出一种双向时序差分记忆网络(BiTDMN),融合局部动态特征提取与全局时序建模能力。通过滑动窗口重构三维批次数据,利用互信息筛选关键变量,结合正向-反向差分运算强化非平稳特征提取,并通过双向递归结构实现历史与未来信息的协同建模。引入增量信息在线更新机制,每20 h利用离线检测数据微调模型,抑制多步预测偏差累积。在工业青霉素发酵数据验证中,BiTDMN的平均绝对误差(MAE)为0.103,均方根误差(RMSE)为0.131,决定系数(R2)达0.972。长周期预测显示,其对浓度峰值的拟合误差大幅降低,多批次终点预测累计偏差减少60%。在线更新策略使拐点时间预测几乎无误差,验证了模型在非平稳动态建模与实时校正中的有效性。该方法为精细化工、生物医药等批次过程的在线质量监控提供了高效解决方案。

       

      Abstract: To address the challenges of capturing non-stationary characteristics of quality indicators and insufficient long-term dependency modeling accuracy in batch production processes, this study proposes a Bidirectional Temporal Difference Memory Network (BiTDMN), which integrates local dynamic feature extraction and global temporal modeling capabilities. Three-dimensional batch data are reconstructed using sliding windows; key variables are selected via mutual information; non-stationary feature extraction is enhanced through forward-backward difference operations and a bidirectional recursive structure is employed to achieve collaborative modeling of historical and future information. An incremental online update mechanism is introduced to fine-tune the model every 20 hours using offline detection data, suppressing multi-step prediction bias accumulation. Validation on industrial penicillin fermentation data shows that BiDRNN achieves a mean absolute error (MAE) of 0.103, root mean square error (RMSE) of 0.131, and coefficient of determination (R2) of 0.972. Long-period prediction results demonstrate a significant reduction in fitting errors for concentration peaks, with a 60% reduction in cumulative deviation for multi-batch endpoint predictions. The online update strategy achieves near-zero error in inflection point time prediction, verifying the model’s effectiveness in non-stationary dynamic modeling and real-time correction. This method provides an efficient solution for online quality monitoring in batch processes across industries such as fine chemicals and biopharmaceuticals.

       

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